The above image is a Day 5 forecast setup from the National Weather Service. As you can see what is known as the “Bermuda High” has been setting up pretty differently this year as compared to previous. What does this have to do in relation to the east coast impact effect? Well, the flow around the high is what influences most Atlantic tropical tracks during the summer months, with small variations in the setup dictating the kind of effect that specific areas have. The typical pattern includes the flow around the high that pulls storms northward towards the east coast and then curves them back to the northeast around the ridge as low pressure areas and cold fronts push air out into the open Atlantic across the northeast united states.
The pattern this year has set up quite differently, with a large cut-off trough in the center of the country which is holding strong, and nearly stationary. The power struggle between both this trough and the strong Bermuda high has been pushing moisture northward between them and warm air, which has set up a very tropical feel for our area. Dew points have been consistently in the upper 60′s to low 70s over the entire area, and a typical summer-time storm setup has evolved, albeit, not severe. A stalled cold front out over the Appilachans doesnt comfort things, as it means there is no forcing nature eastward to push any possible tropical systems out to sea once they head towards the north. This means any storms that develop could plow directly into the northeast, skirting along the east coast along the way. Also the slow and almost stationary nature of these systems could allow any tropical system to persist for a long time, as they would be moving rather slowly in comparison.
The up side is that there are currently no active tropical systems in the Atlantic basin, however, as we move into the Month of July we could be seeing quite a few areas of interest flare up over the Atlantic and Carribean. As of yesterday, there has been some monitoring going on with 2 areas over the Carribean sea near Puerto Rico and Cuba. Further investigation and monitoring will occur with these areas over the next 24-48 hours for possible development.